When Will AI Surpass Human Intelligence?

We’ve been following the development of AI for a while now, and we’ve seen some incredible advancements in recent years. What was once science fiction has become reality, with machines that can beat humans at more or less everything. It’s not just chess anymore – these machines are capable of doing things like driving cars and diagnosing cancer better than any human could ever hope to do. 

It’s predicted by few experts that there exists a 50% chance that AI will be better than humans at more or less everything in around 45 years and automating all human jobs in 120 years. The machines which are already built in the past and the problems they can solve have been growing steadily in scope and because of this, the question that was previously posed has changed from “Will AI surpass human intelligence” to “When will AI surpass human intelligence”. 

While most scientists are optimistic regarding the improvements in the learning capabilities of AI, some also fear the downside of the technological singularity. According to the singularity hypothesis, an upgradable intelligent agent will eventually enter a “runaway reaction” of self-improvement cycles, each new and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing an “explosion” in intelligence and resulting in a powerful superintelligence that qualitatively far surpasses all human intelligence. The thing with the singularity hypothesis is that it’s very far-fetched, but the real issue at hand is that the jobs of millions of people in the US and around the world would be in danger.

The trucking industry is one such example of this, with the rise of self-driving cars and trucks the livelihood of millions is at risk. According to experts, artificial intelligence would become better than humans at driving by 2027. Recently a company by the name of TuSimple sent one of their self-driving trucks on a 951 miles journey from Nogales, AZ to Oklahoma city which it successfully completed in 14 hours whereas humans take around 24 hours to complete the same journey. This shows the advancements AI has made over the past decade.

AI will pass humans in other tasks like translating languages, writing high school level essays, performing surgeries, and even writing New York Times bestsellers by 2049. All of this was a mere work of fiction a few decades back but in the coming decades, it would be a normal reality that we would all live in. One thing to note here is that these timelines vary according to the location as North American scientists say that machines would be able to perform all human tasks in 75 years whereas Asian scientists think that the above-mentioned goal could be achieved in 30 years more or less.